8 race card at Limerick this evening.
Once again I was very right and you were very wrong.
They will be doing well to get to the the 20s in July nevermind June.
Prophetic Fulvio, prophetic.
Pick this chap up off the floor too.
This.
Correct and right.
Emphatically wrong.
Going to be well short of that I’m afraid.
Very good Fulvio.
On the button.
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I have won.
I am a serial winner.
Pay homage to the champion.
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I expect they’ll be down to 34 by the end of the month still, despite them not doing the 400k a month they promised.
Why do you expect that?
The portal will only open Sunday. It will only get tot 35s next Thursday. At which point you have one week left.
400k vaccines per week/2m per month was never feasible or likely. They were too slow getting going.
This vaccine rollout will likely be going on until the middle of Sept. I’m very confident in the schedule I’ve outlined above been the likely scenario.
If we are being completely honest, it has been very poorly handled and very slowly rolled out. They haven’t had the capability to deal with the increase in supply.
All hail Fulvio. Master debater.
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To all my detractors.
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It was feasible. They made a strategic decision to hold back 50% of doses.
People have been getting appointments within a day or two of registering. Of course it doesn’t happen for ALL, just for some, as you can get through a cohort in one area quickly.
All I look at there is the raw numbers. 66.6% done by Sunday eve. 34s started getting jabbed once the U.K. reached 70% of adults. Ireland will be at 70% by the weekend after this. On the low end estimate (72%), I expected 34s to be getting jabbed, that’s all.
More broadly, I still believe anyone who wants a dose will have an appointment by the end of July. Vaccine update is just not going to be 100%. It is 95% for 60s, 90% for 50s and was 85% for 40s in the U.K. We are at 66.66% at the end of this weekend, in 6 weeks time I expect we will be close to 85% with one dose- even doing just 110k first doses per week in July, that’s 3% per week.
That’s still a significant target miss.
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I pointed this out to you four weeks ago when we had this very discussion.
As pointed out, it’s nothing new, they’re doing the same thing they did in prior months. Supply hasn’t been an issue, the capability of them giving out the doses on a parallels with the supply was the issue. They’ve had the supply to meet 400k+ pw - they’ve just failed to deliver on their comittments. I pointed this out for you weeks back and you chose to ignore it and insist that we’d be into the late 20s by next week.
You underestimated the number of second doses to be administered. For instance 300-330k is expect next week - close to 1/3 of that figure will be AZ second doses alone, and whatever Pfizer/Moderna second doses on top of that. They haven’t even got the 40s done yet and probably won’t be finished that cohort until next week. You were expecting that we’d have the 30s all done in two weeks time. It was never, ever going to happen.
82% 1st dose and 60% fully vaccinated is likely to be an August target at this point.
400-450k pw is not likely to be met at this point. It was a pie in the sky figure that they promised due to their failure to meet any of their targets.
I’d also suspect that they are using the cyber attack to massage a lot of their figures as they can’t be put to public scrutiny as they would have been if the portal was available.
Target was 82% yeah, accepted that wasn’t going to be hit a long time ago. Should still end up on 72%. I expected similar to @Copper_pipe that we’d get to 77%. We’ll be about 188k first doses short of that- due to the decision not to do 400k a week with Pfizer (also Pfizer lower than expected).
Why would 60% not be achieved by the end of July?
Well over 60% are done by now. All second AZ doses done by July 19th. 4 week interval on Pfizer and Moderna and we know they are holding them back. That’s an easy enough one for them to hit.
Maybe but unlikely I’d say.
The Indo article above seems to suggest that the vaccine is going to slow down to the 200ks in July so I’d say it’s probably an August target realistically. They haven’t give much faith in meeting targets yet.
HSE chief Paul Reid said yesterday that while he expected July to be a “strong month”, the numbers administered a dose weekly would be down to between 200,000 and 220,000, with many getting second doses.
I’d imagine summer leave is going to cause them havoc now.
They have maxed out at a little over 300k pw. They promised 450k and it was never going to happen, they have had the supply to be hitting 450k pw for sometime now, if they could have done it then they would have done it a long time ago.
That’s a huge issue. They have probably around 400k of those to give out and as stated by the Indo they will be down to doing 200-220k pw next month.
People could just go “well done Fulvio, well played son” from time to time.
Would it be a bit much to show me some well deserved respect and credit just once in a while?
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The silent majority are with you here.
That’s just fresh supply of Pfizer and Moderna I believe.
Edit: I see your post above
I believe it was 90k AZ done this week?