I wouldn’t go that far, but I do think they’ll reach the quarter-finals, where they’d likely have to get a bit lucky with the draw to progress.
I think Southgate will create a better atmosphere than usual within the squad and that’s usually half the battle with England squads since around 2002. On a simple human level I expect he’ll relate much better to the players than Hodgson, Capello or Eriksson did. The press might give him an easier ride too - he’s well spoken, thoughtful and articulate and on the face of it a good representative for English football - the sort of type that the English public will find it very easy to get behind.
Couldn’t see them beating Brazil in a quarter-final though and if they win the group that’s how it should end up. They might have a squeak of a chance against Germany, which could happen if they finish second in the group.