More monkey brains is needed in arms to get out of this mess
Well theyâve developed several and theyâve all been way out.
Iâll do up a model tomorrow saying that without me the average queue time in Dublin Airport will be 12 hours and then declare myself an unqualified success when it doesnât happen
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ah FFS glas, no its not but im sure RTE and NPHET will trumpet it as such
The point is the models can never be accurate because conditions always change.
Thatâs the type of response youâd expect from an idiot.
Modelers would be expected to allow variables, Nolanâs models allowed for variables and three different outcomes depending on those variables, ranging from the very worst case to the very best. They just happened to be hopelessly inaccurate and the he couldnât even estimate the very best case scenario accurately.
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Nphets exponential modelling is something conjured by a OL LC maths student. Such R rates are only capable with limitless testing and a population 6 times greater than we currently have.
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But sure thatâs how the government have to play it. I canât believe they donât realise social solidarity is key to this whole thing. Theyâre losing it bit by bit. People are making up their own minds and most arenât going out anyway. 80pc of people choosing not to go out is far better in the long run than 100pc being forced into it. The 20pc will still mix anyway and it breaks down the solidarity. Even people who wouldnt go near a pub are losing faith with the approach over things that donât affect them.
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Hopefully⌠Iâll send you a few pics from inside on the day so youâll feel part of the occasion.
Surely thatâs why he gives a range?
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Thanks bud, Iâll send you back a thumbs up from the ICU ward
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We were notified our younger lad is a close contact of a kid in school.
Our lad can still attend school once he has no symptoms. Given he had Covid a month or two ago Iâm non plussed.
Better safe than sorry.
if only they had a range so they could take into consideration all the relevant factors and they could have a best case scenario where everything goes right and a worst case scenario where everything goes wrong and if their figures were any way near accurate then the numbers would fall somewhere within their range.
oh wait, they do have a range and theyre totally inaccurate
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Iâm going to really disagree with you here.
On the 17th November, Nolan predicted that âIts possible [there will be 450 people in ICU by Christmas day] but we are trying now to do everything we can to evert that scenarioâ
As well as âNphetâs most recent modelling predicted that if behaviour doesnât change, the optimistic trajectory would be that 200,000 people would become infected in the month of Decemberâ
So, if behaviour doesnt change, from the 17th November, there would be 200,000 infected in December, and thats the optimistic trajectory.
What changed in the last 4 weeks? What restrictions or things happened that would cause cases to fall? Did anything at all change in the last 4 weeks to cause a change in the numbers? Now their most optimistic forecast was 200,000 cases, not the worst case, the worst case was if nothing changed it would be 400,000. No schools closures, bar 2 days of a storm for half the country. No work places closed. People were asked to work form home where they could, but I honestly dont know if there was any great change to that. Nighclubs closed at midnight.
So based on their optomistic projections if things changed, it would be 200,000 for December. Up to yesterday, we have had 70,433 cases. To get to their âoptimisticâ projection we will have to average 8,637 cases every day until the end of the month. Its now 10 days since we had cases over 5,000.
Their projections are absolute bollix. Fuck all has changed in the last 30 days to cause the optimistic projections to fall way below their numbers. Never mind their doomsday 400,000 cases if nothing changed.
Basically, conditions did not change that much in 30 days for their projection to be so wrong. Conditions have largely stayed the same and they were totally wrong. 450 in ICU by Christmas Day? Numbers have dropped since November 17th (119 in ICU on Nov 17th, 108 yesterday). Figures have dropped considerably without any meddling.
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Omicron is a cool name for a variant
As regards Delta, everything has changed in the last 30 days. The boosters have been rolled out at a rate of knots.
The boosters work.
The UK has gone from averaging 50k cases a day to hitting 88k in what, a matter of days?
Do you think it will stay at 88k?
Look I think much of their approach and modelling included has been bollox but yes conditions changed a lot. Events I had tickets to in that period have been cancelled, including nightclub gigs, people started opting out of things, boosters increased and made a difference, it all has an impact set against absolutely no change from when the modelling was done. Iâm not trying to defend Nolan either, heâs quite clearly to me the biggest arsehole on the committee. Iâm just saying that the charge that their models havenât been accurate will always be true, because conditions always change.
I preferred the Mugabe variant.
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