You Are Not Stuck In Covid, You Are Covid Part 6 of infinite

[artfoley]

Regina Doherty

[pulpfiction]

[Gman]

@iron_mike

Omicron is a cool name for a variant

Like a Transformer?

Megatron of the Decpticons

Omicron of the Doomsdays

@Cheasty

@Gman

Their projections are absolute bollix. Fuck all has changed in the last 30 days to cause the optimistic projections to fall way below their numbers. Never mind their doomsday 400,000 cases if nothing changed.

As regards Delta, everything has changed in the last 30 days. The boosters have been rolled out at a rate of knots.

The boosters work.

@Gman

To get to their “optimistic” projection we will have to average 8,637 cases every day until the end of the month. Its now 10 days since we had cases over 5,000.

The UK has gone from averaging 50k cases a day to hitting 88k in what, a matter of days?

Do you think it will stay at 88k?

Boosters have been given out to mainly over 50s. The vast, vast majority of cases in the past month have been under that age, and have been for a while. It was mainly ages 5-12 and 35-45 that were the highest age group categories, and the majority of those are not availing of booster shots right now.

If we get to 200,000 by the end of the month, then Nolan will have been proven correct, on his most optimistic scaling.

@glasagusban

Look I think much of their approach and modelling included has been bollox but yes conditions changed a lot. Events I had tickets to in that period have been cancelled, including nightclub gigs, people started opting out of things, boosters increased and made a difference, it all has an impact set against absolutely no change from when the modelling was done. I’m not trying to defend Nolan either, he’s quite clearly to me the biggest arsehole on the committee. I’m just saying that the charge that their models haven’t been accurate will always be true, because conditions always change.

Ok, so you think conditions changed a lot. Thats grand. But all those conditions were in place and forecast BEFORE he made those projections. So he knew of all the projected changes being listed and said if these changes worked, the best case scenario would be 200,000 cases. And the biggest change in all of this that wasnt forecast, was this big spreader omicron which was not factored into his numbers. So had he had that to consider, do you think his best case scenario would have been 200,000?

His numbers are, and always have been, completely shite. And this really doesnt help people take them seriously. For an advisory body, they lose massive amounts of credibility coming out with this guff and not only are they losing the general public, it is going to get to a point where if people see more and more lockdowns come in, even with having the vaccine, then they will say whats the point in the vaccine if its not going to make any difference.

@Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy if it works, it works.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

@gman with a game changing approach to skirting the current posting restrictions.

[Biff_Egan]

No issue with projections having a range under various assumptions and a fan chart of outcomes. However, the media will report the two standard deviation event at the outer limit of the range -x thousand cases, as what NPHET “predict” and policy will work off that.

[Thomas_Brady]

Two Wongs don’t makes flight.

On bbc2 tonight or tomorrow about the links to Wuhan lab.

[Batigol]

I’m seeing answers to questions before they’re asked!

[BruidheanChaorthainn]

We’re nearly two years into this experiment and it’s only getting worse.

The only way out is going back to normal.

[glasagusban]

It looks to me like this is the balance we find with this for the foreseeable future, rolling boosters. That pretty much gets us back into the same situation we were in a few months ago and sustains it. We basically just reverse a few months to when vaccinated people could do more stuff, boosted becomes the new vaccinated and we’re back to the good position we were in a few months ago. Looking forward it would make sense that there’s a time limit put on the immunity acquired from vaccination (this will come in at EU level before summer for travel anyway) or infection and when it runs out you go get boosted (or infected) and on you go again. Absent anything else changing that would be a sustainable position to be in going into the near future.

[Cheasty]

@BruidheanChaorthainn

We’re nearly two years into this experiment and it’s only getting worse.

The only way out is going back to normal.

Some “normal” you want.

@BruidheanChaorthainn

There’s an evil side of me that hopes this is terrible. I like say one in four of us will die from it. It would lead to a total breakdown of society. The whole world as we know it would collapse. Everything that’s important would become meaningless.

[artfoley]

@glasagusban

It looks to me like this is the balance we find with this for the foreseeable future, rolling boosters. That pretty much gets us back into the same situation we were in a few months ago and sustains it. We basically just reverse a few months to when vaccinated people could do more stuff, boosted becomes the new vaccinated and we’re back to the good position we were in a few months ago. Looking forward it would make sense that there’s a time limit put on the immunity acquired from vaccination (this will come in at EU level before summer for travel anyway) or infection and when it runs out you go get boosted (or infected) and on you go again. Absent anything else changing that would be a sustainable position to be in going into the near future.

i can see the courts getting involved in very short order both at a national level and EU level. and it wont be the gemmas of this world either. it will be normal rational people and businesses whove had their fill and they wont allow the DOH or govt to settle their way oout of it before theres proper judicial scrutiny of the legislation which is what theyve been dreading all along given that theyve deliberately entangled regulation and advice to make it as incoherent as possible

[iron_mike]

Regina is not happy with her 60k odd in the seanad. She wants to get back to the bigger bucks

[Ralphie]

Rumblings on the backbenchs, could we see a coup and Tony get overthrown as leader of the country

[pulpfiction]

Danny Healy Rae needs to give Tony a few pucks into the gob

[tazdedub]

@Ralphie

Rumblings on the backbenchs, could we see a coup and Tony get overthrown as leader of the country

Covid saved Tony, hopefully it will see the end of him as well. If Martin accepts these restrictions and imposes them he will be slaughtered and effectively kill FF.

[Thomas_Brady]

Looks like theres a lot of lads here who won’t be getting a green jersey for Christmas.

[Massey]

Yes, THE Killian Foley-Walsh, Esq.

The Blueshirts are starting to eat themselves

[artfoley]

@Massey

https://twitter.com/Kilfalwol/status/1471817574446993408?t=g8Dt9CSRyD6tUyCSbNr9zA&s=19
The Blueshirts are starting to eat themselves

you love to see it!!

@iron_mike

Regina is not happy with her 60k odd in the seanad. She wants to get back to the bigger bucks

regina is toast as a public rep after DSP settled the case over the PSC

@glasagusban

It looks to me like this is the balance we find with this for the foreseeable future, rolling boosters. That pretty much gets us back into the same situation we were in a few months ago and sustains it. We basically just reverse a few months to when vaccinated people could do more stuff, boosted becomes the new vaccinated and we’re back to the good position we were in a few months ago. Looking forward it would make sense that there’s a time limit put on the immunity acquired from vaccination (this will come in at EU level before summer for travel anyway) or infection and when it runs out you go get boosted (or infected) and on you go again. Absent anything else changing that would be a sustainable position to be in going into the near future.

ban all off sales, have proper track and trace in hospitality and schools as well as ventilation are the answers

[Tank]

@artfoley

ban all off sales

I hope this happens just because it would be so funny.

[BruidheanChaorthainn]

Sounds like there’s some fight left in the government.