Sure you can.
Without a side by side exact trial of the same country with same demographics and same disease with and without a lockdown everything is hypothetical supposition.
Thatâs really silly to me.
Itâs very clear that at Chritmas restrictions were eased and infection rates spiked (higher and faster than predicted even) and after that they went back down when restrictions were introduced again. The same has been seen in lots of places.
Well without a time machine itâs clearly hypothetical, though it seems far fetched (would you agree) to suggest that the lockdown had no effect on hospital numbers, which is the crux of my reply,
Iâm not pro lockdown by any means, never have been, but I think itâs a little bit silly to use low hospital numbers as proof that lockdown wasnât ever required, chicken and egg so to speak
And the opposite has been seen in some places.
We know this from the painfully drawn out whataboutery including all kinds of comparisons of continents, countries, states, regions and archipelagos.
None of the data perfectly aligns a single conclusion.
So, yes, it can be argued.
Was lockdown helpful in lowering cases? Probably.
100% categorical certainty? Canât be proved without the side by side comparison I mention, which wonât ever happen.
And that becomes a problem when you layer in all the issues that prolonged lockdowns impose on a population.
The question then becomes how much of a help was it?
Well, that also canât be quantified. Any quantification is absolute guesswork.
And go a layer of abstraction further.
Were the benefits of the lockdown > the societal cost of the lockdown?
This will be argued for the next decade.
Itâs been done to death but the exact same has been seen in places without these restrictions too.
The local garda station have blocked @Massey s number. Things got so bad that another beighbour rang him to tell him his curtains had paw marks all over them and he needed to clean them
"The reopening of construction looks set to be gradual, with one source saying âthere would be huge mobility issues involved if we allowed all 110,000 construction workers to come back togetherâ.
They are so obsessed with the mobility index they seem to have lost all logic to why they were using it in the first place
How do you decide which construction workers come back and which do not?
And once you make that decision how do you enforce it?
More over engineered unenforceable nonsense.
Youâve gone off the point there while making good points
Absolutely anything can be argued in a hypothetical fashion, even if a mirror image of Ireland existed there would be other factors that would change the picture, human nature etc.
I think itâs a huge stretch to consider that a lockdown with this virus has no effect on hospital numbers, the post I replied to suggested just that
You think that itâs possible that Irelandâs Christmas spike (open it shoots up and close it goes down) can be explained by other factors?
Thatâs complete nonsense.
âThe Government is likely to be warned by Nphet on Monday that the Covid-19 situation remains volatile. Senior public health sources on Friday warned that if the Government âdoes something in April that triggers a wave, they have a disaster on their hands; if they hold off until May or June it is a completely different risk profileâ.
And come May or June theyâll be advocating to hold off until August or September.
A quarter of all cases asymptomatic. Itâs young, healthy people getting it now as the most vulnerable are protected.
Covid cases in hospital way down, ICU numbers way down. Not that youâd know that judging by the hysteria over a fourth wave and impending âdisasterâ.
About 75% of cases in the last week are in those under 45. 50% are in those under 33.
With the younger people getting it there is a case to be made to vaccinate from the 18s up to the 54s when that time comes.
Theyâll be keen to have the college crowd vaccinated too by the time they go back on September also youâd think.
Iâve a pal who used run a business up north and so has NHS number. Heâs getting the jab next week. He reckons theyâll be allowing people from.south up to get jab there late May/June.
Pile of pony or some truth in it you think?
Sort out College Court & Magazine Road out by UCC with jabs and youâll pretty much have two universities sorted.
Iâd imagine something will be worked out along those lines. The north are going to get an influx from the south this summer, along with the regular cross border travel, if restrictions are still in place so itâs in their interest that as many of them as possible as vaccinated.
the shame for the HSE & NPHET is the north is all vaccinated & offering jabs and the free state is still messing around with restrictions
it will be hard to explain that
Tell the country to turn off Google maps and gps on their phone. I sound like a raving Conspiracy theorist but that makes sense, which is even more worrying
