Coronavirus Thread (Markey hates Immigrants )

[Malarkey]

@Tank

The Eddie Hobbs phenomenon, that brief bit of popularity he had, always baffled me. Where did he come from and how did he get so big? What idiot in RTE gave him a show and why did anyone care? Why did the papers respect him? Hobbs must have huge connections somewhere.

I think it is called NECK…

Hobbs appeals to a certain class of grasping idiots, the sort of lads who obsess about the registration plate on their car and fancy Emma English.

[Barname]

Hobbs once worked with a man called Russell Murphy
Russell stole Gay Byrnes cash amongst others while Eddie worked with Russell
Eddie claims no knowledge of the missing cash
Russell (now dead) would be Grandfather to Murphy the TD that recently resigned

[Chucks_Nwoko]

I’d say if Rambo or Neddy were in charge, you’d break nothing.

[Cheasty]

At a population level a more transmissible variant (say 50%) with the same potency as the previous dominant variant is far more damaging for the public health situation than a 50% more potent virus with the same transmissibility.

There was an article on the Atlantic around Christmas which demonstrated how this works in mathematical terms but I’m fucked if I’m finding it now.

But anyway, pre-Alpha variant, the highest we ever got was 1,223 cases in a day. With the Christmas and New Year surge, of which Alpha was definitely a part, we reached 8,227 cases. This took many people by total surprise, but it shouldn’t have done.

With a new variant more transmissible variant again, it’s easy to see how things could go haywire in terms of cases.

[Biff_Egan]

@Malarkey

the sort of lads who obsess about the registration plate on their car and fancy Emma English

So the League of Ireland then?

[ciarancareyshurlingarmy]

81000 cases over 90 days from 1 July to 30 September is the optimistic nphet model

I think these lads don’t have a model, they use the calculator on a phone to mutilply 90days by a rounded number which is more than twice the current run-rate.
There are 91 days from 1 July to 30 September. They could not even get the mutilpier right

OPTIMISTIC

[Malarkey]

@Biff_Egan

@Malarkey

the sort of lads who obsess about the registration plate on their car and fancy Emma English

So the League of Ireland then?

You said it.

[Biff_Egan]

The most recent studies have Delta at circa 40% more transmissible than Alpha. The NPHET model has it at 155%. Seemed strange to me.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

You really would have to be the biggest type of lunatic or conspiracy theorist to give any credibility to NPHET’s warnings.

[Cheasty]

That’s basically 900 cases a day. We’re at 300-400 as it is. That is optimistic in terms of case numbers if you open pubs. Very optimistic.

[Cheasty]

Where exactly does it say that? I haven’t looked at the models in depth.

[glasagusban]

@Cheasty

That is optimistic in terms of case numbers if you open pubs. Very optimistic.

Never mind the actual modelling, an expert on the optimism levels of the modelling now.

[Cheasty]

Thanks for the smileys but it doesn’t address the point.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

4k cases last year June-Aug with indoor dining open.

What they are projecting defies any sort of credibility.

[Ralphie]

“Are we fuck”

[Heyyoubehindthebushes]

Im not special. I’m sure it is hot keyed for them. Copy paste job.

At least they got 2 emails which means they got in reality 2 million emails

[glasagusban]

That you’re talking nonsense based on absolutely nothing?

“Very optimistic” - that was a good one

[glasagusban]

Have you modelled for the 9 euro meal though? That could be a game changer this summer.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

[Fagan_ODowd]

@Cheasty

That’s basically 900 cases a day. We’re at 300-400 as it is. That is optimistic in terms of case numbers if you open pubs. Very optimistic.

I’d agree with that. Very easy to see us getting to 900 cases a day even without pubs opening. I suppose the question I’d have is how they extrapolate hospital and icu numbers from the case numbers.