Election Betting

Sport
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Trump maxed out on his possible electoral college score last time. He wonā€™t win any state he didnā€™t win then.

Turnout, especially black turnout, was the major reason Clinton didnā€™t get to 270, as well as a statistical freak. If Trump is still there in 2020, the Democratic base will be hugely energised regardless of who the candidate is, which should push them towards 68 or 69 million votes again. Trump only got just shy of 63 million and itā€™s hard to see him increasing much on that. Appealing to your base is one thing but it pushes away the floaters and Trump is appealing exclusively to his base.

If Harris is the candidate, black turnout will be massive again. People can talk about the mid-west all they want, but Florida and North Carolina are also two very winnable states, especially with a black candidate, and Trump (or whoever the candidate is) will be gone if they fall, regardless of what happens in the mid-west.

Then the Republicans will be defending wafer thin margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and even with Harris as candidate, itā€™s hard to see them holding onto any of them, frankly. Ohio will also be very much in play. Trumpā€™s approval rating in all of these states has fallen by between 14 and 18 points from January 2017.

If Sanders or Biden is the candidate, or somebody younger like Joe Kennedy or this Beto Oā€™Rourke chap from Texas, or even Elizabeth Warren, Trump/Pence/A.N Other will have a very difficult time holding onto the mid-west.

Iā€™m not sure Trumpā€™s permanent campaigning mode will do him any good either if he is still there in two yearsā€™ time. Heā€™s never stopped doing these ridiculous rallies and people get sick of that sort of thing. It also means any rallies in two yearsā€™ time sort of lose their effect because everybody has seen it all before a hundred times.

Heā€™ll likely need some serious Russian interference and voter suppression to win.

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The democrats are relying on Trump repelling voters the way he did in 2016. If the soccer moms have started to feel like this is the new normal then the Democrats are in big trouble. If not then itā€™s winnable. Trumpā€™s campaign should just be ā€œeconomy economy economyā€ and if he sticks to that it will be powerful.

I can see this black woman failing to connect with the soccer moms in the same way Obama did though. Fuck it, I guess they like Oprah.

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Tulsi Gabbard on Joe Rogan podcast. :thinking:
Sheā€™s a young bright Congresswoman from Hawaii with military experience having tours in Iraq and Kuwait.

Given that you can get 66/1 on Eminem and 50/1 on the Rock, Iā€™ve seen far worse 80/1 shots.

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She also visited Assad and takes a pro-Assad view in everything she says on the subject, almost like sheā€™s an RT ā€œjournalistā€.

Not a hope.

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Less of a hope than Oprah, Michelle Obama, Eminem and The Rock?

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Yes. Sheā€™d be ripped apart over her stance on Syria.

I donā€™t expect any of the above to be candidates but at least three would have a far batter chance if they were.

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LONG BORING POST ON THE 2020 ELECTION BETTING

Tension has been building in the markets all week as a succession of US data has shown the worldā€™s biggest economy growing strongly. Consumer confidence, a health check on the service sector and private-sector jobs growth have all pointed to continued solid expansion.

ā€œA simple dynamic is playing out in the global economy right now ā€“ the US is booming, while most of the rest of the world slows or even stagnates,ā€ said HSBC economist Kevin Logan.

I still just find it so hard to see past Trump. 13/8 looks a fucking steal to me, he should be 1/2 instead. If he had gone for a less divisive presidential style heā€™d be a walk in.

To be honest Iā€™m not sure if Nixonā€™s southern strategy has been that great a success for Republicans. I appreciate that seems a very strange thing to say and flies in the face of conventional thinking. Nixon left office 44 years ago. Since then Republicans have been in office for 24 of those 44 years - only very slightly over 50% of the time. And they got very lucky on the elections for W. Bush & Trump where as when Democrats win they tend to win by a landslide. However I do also recognise that the Southern Strategy just acknowledged the natural fault lines of American society. Like maybe it was unavoidable that one of the parties would do that.

What I mean is that itā€™s almost unbelievable that Trump has a huge booming economy but heā€™s still fancied to lose this election, just through him being such a cunt.

I think the experts and pollsters underestimated Trump before and I think theyā€™re doing the same again. I donā€™t think the 13/8 will last that much longer.

The Republican base backs Trump hard on Kavanaugh/Ford and I donā€™t think theyā€™ll care about the NYT tax-fraud story. I think Trump was right when he said he could kill someone if he wanted. Theyā€™ve already decided they donā€™t care about Mueller. Trump could probably get away with Watergate in my opinion.

The whole of the US has gone insane, I donā€™t see one sensible person. Both sides accept the complete partisan-politicisation of their Supreme Court.

So the recommendation is bet hard on Trump at 13/8 now with a few value bets on the Democrats before their odds shorten. A few thoughts on the Democratic front runners:-

Kamala Harris - Iā€™ve already money down here. Did quite well out of Kavanaugh, has gone from 8/1 to 7/1

Sanders - no chance IMO

Newsom - has a chance vs Trump if he wins the nomination.Too good looking, teeth too white, comes across as vaguely creepy. I donā€™t think heā€™ll win the nomination because heā€™ll remind democrats of Kerry and Gore.

Beto Oā€™Rourke - Social media darling. Serious dark horse for nomination. 20/1 for US President. Worth a punt before the Texas vote on November 6th. For me if he beats Cruz then he will be the Democratic nominee. Wonā€™t beat Trump IMO. Seems to me the quintessential Democrat loser in the Dukakis mold but thereā€™ll be a great cash-out opportunity.

Warren - she could actually beat Trump, although Iā€™d make Trump favourite. No momentum that I can see.

The Rock - says he wonā€™t run. Would have beaten Trump IMO.

In summary bet hard on Trump and put money on Harris and Oā€™Rourke as outsiders to cash out later on.

Also PP have 2 Trump specials going that are just free money -

Jeff Sessions to still be AG on 1 Jan 2019 @ 1/2
Trump to complete his first term @ 1/2

That Jeff Sessions special is notable because I put money on it at the same odds a month ago and now weā€™ve less than 3 months to go but no shortening.

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Elizabeth Warren could beat trump .

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Beto Oā€™Rourke likely wonā€™t even win the Senate seat for Texas, a Democrat hasnt taken that in 30 years. Itā€™s a big leap of faith to go from there to saying heā€™s got a big chance at 20/1 to be the next democratic Presidential candidate.

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Brexit Party to win by election at 10/11 is good value. Peterborogh voted leave remain and this will be on the back of the European elections and ensuing publicity. Voters now identify far more with what side of Brexit divide they are on than party political identity.

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@RaymondCrotty do you think the greens willl do well in the paddy local and euro elections? If so whatā€™s the bet? Spoke to a leading figure in the CiarĆ”n cuffe campaign who was bullish about his chances

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They will do well and I think Cuffe will get in. His odds have shortened a lot in past two weeks. Peterborough is where to go in @Funtime

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So they voted remain last time now your saying party of leave will win even though shift nationally is the other way? Or am I missing something ?

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Also where do I back Peterborough - ladbroeks?

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Sorry they voted leave (61%). Ladbrokes. Canā€™t back it in Cambodia. Local bookies donā€™t have market for it would you believe.

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CUnts are living in a fucking bubble , most of them probably couldnā€™t find Peterborough on a map

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184

What do U want on it?

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Be brave.

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3rd or 4th?

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Or Cambodia.