Deaths in NZ are climbing - RIP Maori Mike
Blood on Jacinda’s hands
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Why are coronavirus cases rising and what is the significance?
, Science Editor
Monday September 07 2020, 12.00pm BST, The Times
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Suppressing a virus is where the goals of public health come into conflict with the laws of mathematics. Public health doctrine tells us that we will not eradicate this coronavirus any time soon: all we can do is manage it at a low level. The problem with this is that mathematics tells us diseases don’t like to stay at a low level.
The spread of a disease doesn’t make a nice flat graph obediently going from one person, to one more person, to one more person. Diseases spread exponentially. They go from one to two, two to four, four to eight.
Fighting this explosion, as we have been trying to do, is an “unstable equilibrium”. It is a little like keeping a ball balanced on the top of a pyramid: theoretically possible, but practically likely to result in a ball rushing down and hitting you in the face.
So what does it mean that for two days in a row daily infection numbers have been over 1,000 up from the previous average: hitting 2,988 on Sunday and 2,948 on Monday? Is our ball about to go splat?
First, the day tests are recorded is not the day tests are taken. It is probable some of these results are bunched up from several days.
Nevertheless, scientists are worried — in particular by the fact that the rise is not localised in one easily controllable area, but appears to be driven by increases across the north of England. After Sunday’s data they were pretty sure it was not just a blip. Monday’s appeared to confirm it.
Another key piece of information is that testing has been increasing. On the face of it, these infection statistics put cases at the same level as late May. In reality back then, with around 90,000 daily tests, we probably missed more than 90 per cent of symptomatic cases; today, with almost twice as many tests, we probably miss more like 50 per cent. So real levels today are far lower than the spring. But increased testing alone is not enough to explain a steady rise from under 350 daily cases in July to 1,813 on Saturday, and is certainly not enough to explain the sudden jump since then.
The worry is not the level but the direction. Between actual infection and tests being registered is almost a week — a week in which schools have opened, bank holiday fun has been had and the virus has spread unnoticed. If the UK’s pandemic has gone into exponential growth, then the true case numbers could already be approaching a level such that test and trace may be overwhelmed and more lockdowns will be necessary.
There is a glimmer of hope. One of the mysteries of this disease is that even as case numbers have ticked up, deaths have not followed. Scientists are still debating what this means.
It could be, as statistics suggest, we are just seeing it spread among the young, and it’s conceivable it might stay there. Although, and you don’t need a degree in epidemiology to grasp this point, the young have an unnerving habit of meeting the old.
It could also be that our behaviour has changed. A disease that once arrived in our bodies through close contact — through air kisses and long Tube journeys in infected carriages — now comes from snatched inhalations behind masks. Perhaps, with each infection caused by fewer particles, our immune systems are better able to fight it off?
Maybe so, says Jennifer Rohn, from University College London, but even that is not great news. “We still don’t know the longer-term effects of mild or asymptomatic infections, let alone the longer-term disabilities of hospitalised survivors,” she said.
Real world data is noisy. Numbers go up and down, and it will take time for a trend to emerge. The moment we know we are in trouble is not when we are talking about the daily increases in cases. It is when we start talking about the doubling time of cases. That is when public health bumps up against mathematics, and we once again find ourselves battling the power of the exponential
John Bull doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going
The pubs defo won’t be opening here so.
Thought nightclubs, pubs etc were back to normal:grinning:
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You have to admire the way Boris gives them a few days grace to go absolutely at it before shutting things down again.
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The swedes were the only ones who kept their heads when all about them were losing theirs
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It’s remarkable to think that Sweden who never had a lockdown are done with Covid while the rest of the western world are either still in lockdown six months later or looking at re imposing lockdowns. This is exactly what was predicted by the astute posters (the murderers) on TFK back in March, once you enter lockdown you can never truly leave.
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Oh yes you can
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I thought you were better than that. Christ above.
Boris says stay calm and wash your hands
Great post
History will judge him (and Sweden) kindly.
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Any groups of more than 6 will be arrested says Boris