I’m not sure, had a scan of the roadmap there and it doesn’t specify.
3.8 million adults in Ireland.
According to the roadmap yesterday, between the 1st Jan 21 and 30th June 21, Ireland is due to get about 5.1 million doses.
600k doses of the J&J vaccine is enough to jab 600k people. About 16% of the adult population as you pointed out.
So 3.8 million less 600k = 3.2million left to vaccinate.
That leaves you with 4.5 million doses left. Enough to fully vaccinate 2.25 million people. Obviously depending on when they arrive in, that won’t mean those 2.25 million will be fully vaccinated by the end of June.
Outside of the 5.1 million, Ireland has an order in to receive about 600k of the Curevac vaccine in Q2. Requires 2 doses so enough for 300k people.
If J&J went bust and couldn’t supply another vaccine after Q2 commitments. We’d need about another 2 million doses to fully vaccinate the entire adult population.
Good thing is j&j is the largest healthcare company in the world and won’t go bust. With their manufacturering power they will be able to ramp up production. They only completed a massive expansion to the cork plant last year
So 80% of the adult population (circa 3.8m) will be done by the end of June - that’s 3.04m. That includes 600k J&J doses presumably. You are 200k short of having everyone with the first jab given J&J don’t need a second jab.
So for the second dose, we are looking at a surplus of little over 2m left. So we’ll see 2m people get their second dose, add in the extra 600k that would leave 2.6m fully vaccinated. That comes in at 68%, now the official figure is probably reduced due to needing to keep supplies in reserve for those due their second shot. The reality is you are looking at probably 2.3m (60%) with the second dose and another 300k sitting in a fridge.
So at this point you would be looking at 200k first doses needed and 1.5m to finish off the second doses. So you need a total of 1.7m doses with 300k already sitting in a fridge. Should Curevac and AZ come through it also adds in an extra 1.4m there so at that point you have all your supply needed by the end of June.
However that’s assuming all adults get the vaccine. Reality it is probably likely to be 80-90% uptake so you imagine 90% of the supply should be in by June if those figures in the graph are true. And if Curevac and AZ actually are able to deliver there should be 100% of supply there for what is realistically needed by the end of June.
It’s very encouraging if the pharmaceutical companies can deliver. The it’s the big question - will the HSE deliver? The pressure from the public to deliver on this will be mammoth.
Are the gubbernment really keeping track of everyone who has gotten their vaccine? If so how? On PPS number or something? If there is a “vaccine passport” how will you prove you have gotten one?
